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Wheat Production in India – A Decadal Synopsis

Monday, 01 August, 2016, 08 : 00 AM [IST]

Indu Sharma and R Sendhil

Wheat (Triticum spp.) is the largest grown cereal in the world occupying about 225 million hectare with an estimated annual production of 726.55 million tonne. India is the second- largest wheat producer with a consecutive production of more than 90 million tonne in the past three years. However, the production in 2014-15 has been affected tremendously by the weather anomalies in the productive regions of the country pulling down the production to 88.94 million tonne, a decline by 7.21 per cent from the 2013-14 highest record production of 95.85 million tonne. Yet, the nutritious grain holds a 35 per cent share in the total foodgrains produced from India and supply a significant share of total proteins (20%) and calorie intake (19%) from consumption.

Table 1 and 2 show the scenario of spatial and temporal changes in wheat production between 2005-06 and 2014-15 but in varying magnitude. It is clear that a majority of the minor wheat growing states posted a decline in the area under the crop, production and yield. However, in the case of major wheat growing regions like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana, the quantum increase in acreage, production and yield is well evident (Table 2). Interestingly, the estimated yield difference between the two periods is engagingly positive for a majority of the states. The country as a whole witnessed a 16.94 per cent, 28.24 per cent and 9.66 per cent increase respectively in area, production and yield, a good sign for the nation in the context of food security. It is clear that acreage increase is the prime reason for additional wheat production between 2005-06 and 2014-15 followed by yield increase.

Among states, Madhya Pradesh progressed very well during the decade with an increased production estimated at 8.2 million tonne (138%). The increased yield by 58% followed by the crop acreage by 51 per cent shall be attributed for the additional wheat production. Rajasthan is the next best performer owing to its additional contribution around 4 million tonne (68.26%) during the decade. However, in the case of Rajasthan, increase in the crop acreage by 56.23 per cent played a major role in quantum jump followed by marginal increase in the crop yield (7.68%).

Regional disparities in area and yield show a significant impact on the wheat production. The magnitude of quantum change under the crop area between the two periods was more in Madhya Pradesh (+1.88 million hectare), followed by Rajasthan (+1.19 million hectare) and Uttar Pradesh (+0.68 million hectare). However, the percentage change was more in Jharkhand (195%), followed by Rajasthan (56.23%) and Madhya Pradesh (50.56%). In the case crop productivity, a significant change was noticed in Madhya Pradesh (+ 938 kg/ha), followed by Haryana (+ 730 kg/ha) and West Bengal (+ 727 kg/ha).

Table 1. Area, production and yield for 2005-06 and 2014-15

Region	Area	Production	Yield	Area	Production	Yield
	('000 ha)	('000 tonne)	(kg/ha)	('000 ha	('000 tonne)	(kg/ha)
	2005-06			2014-15*
Andhra Pradesh	11.0	9.0	818	6.0	6.0	1000
Assam	50.0	53.7	1074	35.0	44.0	1257
Bihar	2003.7	3239.0	1617	2188.1	4049.3	1851
Chhattisgarh	102.4	90.7	886	97.5	135.3	1388
Gujarat	916.0	2473.0	2700	1146.0	3220.0	2810
Haryana	2304.0	8857.0	3844	2592.0	11856.0	4574
Himachal Pradesh	358.5	679.0	1894	400.5	720.9	1800
Jammu & Kashmir	248.0	444.0	1790	290.9	349.2	1200
Jharkhand	58.0	77.7	1340	171.1	330.4	1931
Karnataka	253.0	217.0	858	197.0	215.0	1091
Madhya Pradesh	3692.8	5957.7	1613	5560.0	14181.9	2551
Maharashtra	933.0	1300.0	1393	895.0	1236.0	1381
Odisha	3.3	4.5	1364	0.6	1.0	1667
Punjab	3468.0	14493.0	4179	3514.0	15783.5	4492
Rajasthan	2123.9	5865.3	2762	3318.2	9868.7	2974
Uttar Pradesh	9163.9	24073.8	2627	9846.0	25219.5	2561
Uttarakhand	395.0	645.0	1633	348.0	662.0	1902
West Bengal	366.7	773.5	2109	335.0	950.0	2836
Others	18.3	79.4	4339	28.1	109.7	3904
India	26483.6	69354.5	2619	30969.0	88938.4	2872

Note: * indicates the fourth advance estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture, India

Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) showed that the overall wheat production in the country has grown at the rate of 3.3 per cent per annum from 2005-06 to 2014-15 (Table 2). It was highest in the case of Jharkhand followed by Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In terms of yield, the estimated CAGR was highest in Madhya Pradesh followed by Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. The acreage annual growth was found to be more in the case of Jharkhand (12.5%), followed by Madhya Pradesh (5.2%) and Rajasthan (3.9%). Declining area under minor wheat growing states is a subject of serious concern to policy makers.

Table 2. Quantum change and CAGR in area, production and yield
(2005-06 to 2014-15)

Region	Area	Production	Yield	Area	Production	Yield
	('000 ha)	('000 tonnes)	(kg/ha)	Area	Production	Yield
	Quantum Change			CAGR in %
Andhra Pradesh	-5.0	-3.0	182	-5.5	-5.3	0.13
Assam	-15.0	-9.7	183	-6.1	-4.5	1.72
Bihar	184.4	810.3	234	0.4	2.7	2.26
Chhattisgarh	-4.9	44.6	502	0.8	5.7	4.85
Gujarat	230.0	747.0	110	2.0	3.7	1.75
Haryana	288.0	2999.0	730	1.0	2.9	1.94
Himachal Pradesh	42.0	41.9	-94	0.5	2.6	2.09
Jammu & Kashmir	42.9	-94.8	-590	1.6	-0.3	-1.93
Jharkhand	113.1	252.7	591	12.5	17.4	4.39
Karnataka	-56.0	-2.0	233	-3.4	-1.5	1.99
Madhya Pradesh	1867.2	8224.2	938	5.2	11.0	5.60
Maharashtra	-38.0	-64.0	-12	-2.4	-2.1	0.26
Odisha	-2.7	-3.5	303	-21.6	-19.8	2.26
Punjab	46.0	1290.5	313	0.1	1.7	1.51
Rajasthan	1194.3	4003.4	212	3.9	5.1	1.14
Uttar Pradesh	682.1	1145.7	-66	0.9	1.7	0.75
Uttarakhand	-47.0	17.0	269	-1.6	0.7	2.41
West Bengal	-31.7	176.5	727	-0.9	2.0	2.93
Others	9.8	30.3	-435	2.5	2.0	-0.47
India	4485.4	19583.9	253	1.6	3.3	1.67

Historical data on wheat area, production and yield for India indicates that the crop acreage is almost reaching a plateau in the recent past (Figure 1). However, the variations in production is largely attributed to the yield levels registered across the wheat growing regions. Figure 2 clearly specifies that Madhya Pradesh has outperformed other states in terms of quantum as well as per cent change in the yield level. Yet, regional variations were noticed in all the states despite a remarkable progress.

Agriculture in general, and wheat production in particular, has been fraught with regular risks and uncertainties leading to regional variations. India, being an agrarian economy with wheat as a major staple food crop, technological innovations and interventions along with policy governance have to play a major role in stabilising the crop production which directly addresses the income and welfare of farming community.

The authors are from ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research, Karnal – 132001, Haryana. They can be contacted at ispddwr@gmail.com, r.sendhil@gmail.com