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Global edible oil markets enter ‘structural volatility’ phase, says industry body
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Wednesday, 11 February, 2026, 13 : 00 PM [IST]
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Our Bureau, New Delhi
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Global edible oil markets have entered a period of “structural volatility” driven by shifting trade patterns, biofuel mandates and tight supply dynamics, according to Sudhakar Desai, President of the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association (IVPA) and CEO of Emami Agrotech Ltd. Desai made the remarks recently at the UOB Kay Hian Conference in Kuala Lumpur, highlighting long-term changes reshaping how edible oils are priced and traded worldwide.
Speaking on the theme “Navigating Structural Shifts in Global Edible Oils: Implications for India,” Desai said geopolitical restructuring has altered global trade corridors, compressing arbitrage opportunities and amplifying how energy prices, currency movements and policy changes affect edible oil markets. He stressed that small adjustments in duties or trade flows now trigger disproportionate price swings across the supply chain, making traditional patterns of stability a thing of the past.
Desai noted that global production of the four major vegetable oils is expected to reach 208.4 million tonnes in 2025–26, a marginal increase year-on-year. While palm and rapeseed output is growing, sunflower oil production remains constrained, leaving overall supply balances vulnerable to weather events and policy disruptions. This has kept inter-oil competition intense and price spreads unstable, with sunflower oil commanding a persistent premium.
Biofuel programmes, particularly in Indonesia and the United States, have further complicated the landscape by absorbing significant volumes of palm and soybean oil, effectively linking edible oils to broader energy markets rather than pure food commodity cycles.
For India, domestic edible oil production is seen covering only around 40% of demand in the 2025–26 oil year, reinforcing reliance on imports of roughly 16.7 million tonnes, including palm, soybean and sunflower oils. Desai said India’s import basket remains highly sensitive to inter-oil price differentials, which can sharply influence sourcing decisions and volumes.
Trade policy developments, including recently concluded free trade agreements with key partners, are also increasingly influencing landed costs, arbitrage flows and refining economics across markets.
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