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Global coffee prices poised for correction as experts draw parallels to recent cocoa crash
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Monday, 23 March, 2026, 12 : 00 PM [IST]
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Our Bureau, Mumbai
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Global coffee prices may be on the verge of a significant decline, with industry experts at the National Coffee Association (NCA) annual convention warning of a potential "boom-and-bust" cycle similar to the one recently seen in the cocoa market.
After a two-year rally driven by weather-related supply disruptions and trade uncertainties, analysts suggest the market is now vulnerable to a sharp correction. Comparisons are being drawn to the cocoa market, where prices surged to over $12,000 per tonne in late 2024 before plummeting by more than 70% as high costs stifled consumer demand and forced manufacturers to reformulate products.
Market strategist Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading noted that coffee is showing similar technical and fundamental patterns. "I do think coffee is the new cocoa," Garner stated, predicting that Arabica futures could sink to $2.00 per pound by year-end, down from recent highs near $3.00. Other analysts, including Digby Beatson-Hird of Avere Commodities, see prices dipping as low as $1.80 per pound.
A recent NCA survey of 1,500 American consumers supports this outlook, revealing that 61% of respondents have taken steps to reduce coffee spending. These measures include cutting back on café visits, brewing more at home, and switching to cheaper brands. Consequently, premium Arabica beans have lost market share to more affordable Robusta varieties.
The primary driver for the expected price relief is a projected record harvest in Brazil, the world’s top producer. While the 2025/26 crop is expected to be strong, some experts caution that a "crash" may be tempered by well-capitalised farmers who are likely to release their stocks gradually rather than flooding the market.
While a drop in commodity prices usually takes time to reach retail shelves, Rabobank analysts expect a modest 2% rebound in global demand by late 2026 as lower costs eventually benefit the end consumer.
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