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El Niño risks to agriculture are highest: FAO
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Wednesday, 24 June, 2026, 15 : 00 PM [IST]
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Rome, Italy
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A new El Niño phase is likely to begin within weeks, putting agriculture on alert around the world. New analyses by experts at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) allow for detailed mapping of where El Nino-linked drought is most likely to impact crops and pasturelands.
As the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) forecasts a stronger-than-usual cycle, FAO’s analysis draws on 41 years of historical satellite imagery from its Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS), tracing where strong and very strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events tend to cause the most severe drought.
The risks are sharpest in the Sahel, across Southern Africa, in South and Southeast Asia, and in Central America’s Dry Corridor and the Caribbean, where some agricultural and pastureland areas face more than a 50 percent chance of drought over the coming months.
Many of the same regions were hit hard during the El Niño events of 2015–16 and 2023–24. El Niño cycles expose the same vulnerabilities and tend to trigger failed harvests, livestock losses, rising household debt, and migration in search of food and water. In 2015–16 alone, El Niño affected more than 60 million people and prompted $5 billion in humanitarian appeals across 23 countries.
Jorge Alvar-Beltrán, FAO natural resources officer, said, “Risks are now skewed to the upside as climate extremes increasingly collide with conflict and economic stress. This isn't like previous El Niños. The planet is much warmer, and with conflict and food insecurity widespread, this new phase will hit hardest in places that are already vulnerable and have limited coping capacity.”
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