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India’s sugar production for 2018-19 forecast to rise 1.8 MT to 35 MT: 16.00 PM
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Thursday, 22 November, 2018, 16 : 00 PM [IST]
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Our Bureau, New Delhi
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India’s sugar production for 2018-19 is forecast to rise 1.8 million tonne (MT) to a record 35.9 MT due to the higher area and yields (in spite of pest and weather concerns), eclipsing Brazil’s for the first time in over 15 years.
The global production for marketing year (MY) 2018-19 is forecast down 9 MT to 186 MT primarily due to the eight-million-tonne drop in Brazil caused by unfavourable weather and more sugarcane being diverted towards ethanol production.
Exports are down, driven by the lower supplies in Brazil. Record consumption is expected due to growth in markets such as India and Indonesia.
Global stocks are forecast to rise to a new high of 53 million metric tonne (MMT) (raw value), as massive stock building in India will more than offset the lower stocks in China and the European Union (EU).
Sugar overview for 2018-19
Consumption is also forecast at a record, 27.5 million tonne, due to a growing population and strong demand from food processors. Exports are forecast to more than double to 4 MT, as sugar mills seek to reduce stocks which are expected to soar to a record 18.1 MT.
Brazil’s production is estimated to be down 8.3 MT to 30.1 MT due to lower sugarcane yields and more sugarcane being diverted towards ethanol production as record global sugar supplies have led to weak prices.
Exports are projected to drop similarly to 19.6 MT, lowering Brazil’s market share of exports to 34 per cent (down from a five-year average of 45 per cent). Stocks and consumption are both relatively unchanged.
Selected 2017-18 revisions from May 2017 forecast
Global production was up 2.8 MT to 194.6 MT.
- India raised 1.7 MT to 34.1 MT on higher yields
- Thailand boosted 980,000 tonne to 14.7 MT on greater area and higher yields
Global exports were up 7,93,000 tonne to 63.9 MT
- Thailand raised 1 MT to 10.5 MT on a larger sugarcane crop
- Pakistan was up 8,00,000 tonne to 1.8 MT on an increased export quota
- India was revised down 200,000 tonne to 1.8 MT
Global ending stocks were up 2 MT to 51.5 MT
- India was up 2.2 MT to 13.7 MT on record production
- Pakistan was lowered 7,00,000 tonne to 3.1 MT on higher exports
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