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Sugar production till March 31 was 237 lakh ton; 11 lakh ton less: ISMA
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Saturday, 02 April, 2016, 08 : 00 AM [IST]
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Our Bureau, Mumbai
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fiogf49gjkf0d The all India sugar production upto March 31, 2016, was 237 lakh tonne, according to a press release issued by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association). This is about 11 lakh tonne less than last year, which was expected, since the estimated sugar production in the current season was lower than last year.
As compared to 366 sugar mills which were working on March 31 last year, 215 sugar mills continue to crush sugarcane in the current season on March 31, 2016. In the last season, 35 lakh tonne of sugar was produced further after April 1, 2015. With lower number of sugar mills operating in the current season, sugar production in the balance period in the current season would obviously be lower.
Maharashtra has produced 82 lakh tonne upto March 31, 2016, which was 93.6 lakh tonne at the corresponding period in the last season. As compared to 135 sugar mills which were still working as on March 31, 2015, 58 sugar mills are crushing sugarcane in Maharashtra as of now. Most of these sugar mills are operating in Kolhapur, Pune and Sangli districts which are the main cane belt area and were not so badly affected due to less water availability, and therefore, it is generally expected that another 5 to 6 lakh tonne may get further produced from Maharashtra. Due to drought like conditions, the average recovery in Maharashtra is reported to be slightly lower than last year.
The sugar mills in UP have produced 65.7 lakh tonne upto March 31, 2016, which was 63.4 lakh tonne at the same corresponding period last year. However, as compared to 76 sugar mills which were working last year at the end of March, currently 48 sugar mills were crushing sugarcane in UP. Due to good weather conditions in the state and substantial improvement in cane varieties and their acreage in the state, the average sugar recovery being reported from UP is significantly higher than last year by around 1%. It is generally expected that mills in UP may produce around 5 lakh tonne in the balance period in this season.
The sugar mills in Karnataka have produced 40.16 lakh tonne in the current season upto March 31, 2016, which is slightly lower than 42.47 lakh tonne produced at the same corresponding period last year. As compared to 51 sugar mills which were still under operation last year at the end of March, there were 15 sugar mills which were currently crushing sugarcane in the state. The mills in Karnataka produced another about 7 lakh tonne last year after April 1, 2015. However, with lesser number of sugar mills working in the state and also considering that South Karnataka mills have a special season in July – September, the sugar mills in Karnataka may produce around 2 lakh tonne more in the balance period of this season.
The fourth-largest sugar producing state, namely, Tamil Nadu has produced 8 lakh tonne upto March 31, 2016, which is slightly higher than 7.53 lakh tonne of sugar production at the same period in the last season. Almost same number of sugar mills are still crushing sugarcane in Tamil Nadu at the end of March i.e. against 38 sugar mills last year, there are 39 sugar mills under operation currently. The state of Tamil Nadu has a special season in July – September, and considering that, it is expected that the mills in Tamil Nadu would produce another 6 lakh tonne in the balance period of the current season.
Other states like Uttarakhand, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, AP and Telangana have either produced similar quantity of sugar as last year or slightly higher in the current season. There are 55 sugar mills in total working in these states (except in Bihar which has closed) at the end of March this year. A few lakh tonne of sugar is expected to be produced from these states in the balance period of the season.
The current year’s sugar production is almost equal to the domestic consumption. The sugar mills opened the current season with a significantly high opening stock of 91 lakh tonne. Some 11.5 lakh tonne of sugar has been physically exported in the current season and as compared to contracts finalised till now, another 3 lakh tonne are expected to move in the next couple of months. Unless and until further export contracts take place, 91 lakh tonne of opening stocks will get drawn down to around 75 lakh tonne which is still a significantly high opening balance for October 1, 2016.
There are field reports which suggest that due to less rainfall and lower water availability in reservoirs in some districts in Maharashtra and North Karnataka, the acreage of sugarcane available for harvesting in 2016-17 SS will be lower. Therefore, there is a general expectation that sugar production during 2016-17 SS from the states of Maharashtra and Karnataka, due to lower acreage in some of their districts, will be lower than the current sugar season.
However, it is important to note that the acreage under early variety of sugarcane i.e. CO 0238 in UP, will go upto around 40% as compared to around 20% in this season. This early variety is reportedly giving higher yields as well as higher sugar recovery to the sugar mills in UP. Therefore, with area under sugarcane for next season reportedly expected to be similar to the current season, the sugar production from UP next year will be higher. Similarly, after two years of drought like conditions in Tamil Nadu, the state has received very good rainfall in 2015 and, therefore, it is expected that the acreage in Tamil Nadu will increase in next season. This will give higher sugarcane availability and sugar production from Tamil Nadu too.
Therefore, the lower expected sugar production from Maharashtra and Karnataka is expected to be significantly compensated by higher production from UP and Tamil Nadu, reducing the net fall for the country from the current season significantly.
However, despite expected reduction in sugar production in the next sugar season, it is important to note that the opening stocks as on October 1, 2016, will be very comfortable at about 75 lakh tonne and, therefore, there will be enough sugar to not only take care of the domestic requirement for the whole year, but will also leave a reasonable opening balance for 2017-18 SS.
International as well as domestic agencies are reporting that the impact of El Nino will be over in the month of May, and, therefore, it is expected that there will not be a dry season in India this time. The Indian Meterological Department’s (IMD’s) first report is expected in next three weeks by third week of April, which will give a clearer picture, but a general expectation from the experts, suggests that the monsoon this year will be normal, which may be good for sugarcane planting next year.
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