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Post pandemic lockdown: outlook for packaged food and beverage industry
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Monday, 13 July, 2020, 16 : 00 PM [IST]
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P. Rajan Mathews
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Changing times, changing consumer needs:
The two months plus coronavirus pandemic lockdown has kept Indian households across the country confined inside their homes with little outside help and has changed the lifestyle of the Indian middle-class families. With no Domestic help all household chores had to be done by the man at home and teenaged and adult children have had to lend their hand in the kitchen and in the daily cleaning processes at home.
The following events and factors during the two months plus lockdown and its staggered opening will have a bearing on the changes that will be seen during the post lockdown period:
1. Continuous Information on the Corona Virus crisis had engulfed the Indian families and with regular expert views through various media on tackling the same. This has increased the awareness among the Indian Consumers on the following issues:
a. Immunity is the basic body fighter against the Corona Virus and only the individuals with weaker immunity have been victims of the Corona viral attack. The Indian consumers during this period has been actively seeking information on the ways and means to improve and increase their immunity. Post the Lockdown period Indian Consumers has understood well the need to have good diet and food rich in proteins (vegan, dairy and non-veg), Vitamin A and C and minerals consisting of Zinc and Iron.
b. New Experts on demand such as Dietitians, Health, Meditation, Self-help, ancillary health, Motivational and Yoga experts.
c. Hygiene in their Daily Lives through frequent Hand washes, keeping their clothes, homes, and surroundings clean and hygienic. This hygiene will get extended to the Indian consumers way of Consumers buying behaviour of various products, usage, and others.
d. Social Distancing will become the new norm initially through regulations and later as a habit as a result there will be lesser socialising with relatives, friends, and colleagues.
e. New Media and Reading Habits have started to evolve and change with digital media dominating the consumer habit. Print Newspapers and magazines have become digital, Social Media has become the new norm and the Audio-Visual media has become the new dominant on social media.
2. Restrictions in Movement and Meetings during the Lockdown and during the expected staggered opening period will create new norms in the lives of Indian Consumers such as:
a. Work from Home will become the new norm, and this has been found to be useful in industries such as software & allied and even in industries which require Office presence there will be staggered office timings with working from home. Sales and Marketing personnel will have to operate partly from their homes. This is advantageous for the organisations as this will require lesser the costly real estate Office space, its maintenance and Office operational costs. For individuals, the to and from Office travel costs and travel times especially in metros will be saved and will cause lesser pollution in cities.
b. Lesser Meetings in Office and meeting customers will be more through online and tele meetings. The FMCG, Pharma and other sales personnel visits to the Retailers, Doctors and B2B Customers will be drastically reduced and the regular reordering of material from Retailers / Wholesalers will not be dependent on the Sales personnel visits.
c. Cooking / Domestic work maids have been restricted from working at homes and as result the families were left to themselves in the two months plus lockdown period. Families had to do the daily chores and cooking by themselves which involved all the family members and this period also initiated the men and the teenaged / adult children into cooking and helping their parents in their Daily cooking chores by cutting vegetables and making from ready to eat foods.
3. Supply chain disruptions: has been a regular feature due to the stoppage in movement of Goods and supplies from the various factories to the warehouses across the country. In fact, during the initial lockdown period there was disruption of supplies of essential goods such as milk, dairy products and many daily essential goods due to the confusions in the implementation of the lockdown and only after many regulatory interventions were the essential supplies restored.
The packaged food manufacturers and the retail supply chain was largely affected by the changes in consumer preference for essential food and personal care products and no sales of furnishings and apparel. With Indians resigned to new living conditions amid the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, many expect the impact to last for a longer time. An extended period of lockdown policies means the rise of in-home cooking will continue to greatly affect the food shopping baskets. In the months to come, the needs of Indian consumers will continue to evolve at a rapid pace, and retailers and packaged food manufacturers will have to turn to new and creative ways to evolve alongside consumers.
a. Next door Grocery store (General Trade) comes to the rescue of the nearby lockdown residents as they have been able to replenish of various brands of packaged food products. The enterprising GT stores were able to source from the nearby Wholesalers and distributors.
b. Modern Stores located in the residential catchment areas were only able to offer the left-over stocks and were able to offer the customers only the private label brands and the slow-moving brands such as organic food products.
c. Food Delivery Aggregators, cab and bike taxi aggregators, and non-essential ecommerce firms are joining hands with retail chains and online grocers to supply groceries to consumers stuck at home because of the lockdown. Uber, Domino's Pizza, Rapido, Swiggy, Zomato and Scootsy have all ventured into grocery delivery in partnerships with retail chains such as Reliance, Big Bazaar, Spencer’s Retail and Nature's Basket, and online grocers Big Basket and Grofers that are grappling with a massive shortage of employees due to flight of several migrant workers to their hometowns and are not expected back.
d. Online and Mobile Shopping becomes the new norm amng the Indian Consumers With an increase in online shopping, including among many first-time adopters, there has been an imminent potential for acceleration of the growth of online sales. For some consumers, it will take a long time to regain trust of exposure to public spaces, reinforcing the value of the online channel. Thus far, convenience has been a contributing factor to the growth of digital channels; however, in times of COVID-19, safety has become the prime factor.
New outlook and pivot for the packaged food and beverage industry:
The two months plus Covid-19 pandemic lockdown period is a disruptor for many industries including the Indian packaged food and beverage industry.
Due to the lockdown, changes in the Indian consumers habits and their behaviour will result in the changes in demand and needs of the Indian consumers are going to change in comparison to the pre lockdown period. The changes will dictate the new norm and outlook for the post lockdown decade for the Indian packaged food and beverage industry in the following ways:
Demand for packaged foods / commodities will surge: With the fear of viral infections around and the need for good and health foods consumers will demand for more of packaged food and beverage products.
These may not be processed foods and beverages but commodities that are generally packed hygienically and well labelled. As on date today most of the packaged Foods and Beverages are in the loose formats and consumers are being converted from the unorganised loose food products and commodities which will see a faster conversion.
Most of the food commodities / product categories are dominated by the unorganised loose categories in such as rice, wheat, and wheat products such as atta, maida, sooji etc., cooking oils, spice powders / masala, tea, whole spices etc.
Private labels in modern trade will rule this category growth and regional food manufacturers / players will dominate the general trade across the country. The penetration across the lower SECs will gain momentum as consumers begin to be less price conscious as the lockdown has given them the experience of being healthy is priceless.
New age grains / Nutri-cereals will gain momentum :
Millets comprising of Sorghum (Jowar), Pearl Millet (Bajra), Finger Millet (Ragi / Mandua), Minor Millets i.e. Foxtail Millet (Kangani / Kakun), Proso Millet (Cheena), Kodo Millet (Kodo), Barnyard Millet (Sawa / Sanwa / Jhangora), Little Millet (Kutki) and two Pseudo Millets (Black-wheat (Kuttu) and Ameranthus (Chaulai) have high nutritive value as ‘Nutri-Cereals’, for production, consumption and trade instead of coarse cereals.
Millets are gluten-free, highly nutritious, millets need very little water for their production, short growing period under dry, high temperature conditions. Millets also required rich soils for growth, no millet attracts any pest hence they have no or low fertiliser usage and pest-free.
Millets are rich in B vitamins, calcium, iron, potassium, magnesium, zinc, also gluten-free, Helps to lower type 2 diabetic and reduces the risk of heart disease Millets are a great source of starch, making it a high-energy food. It is also an excellent source of protein and fibre.
Quinoa is another new age Grain which has an incredible nutrition base and are considered better sources of fibre, protein, vitamin B, iron, and high levels of protein in comparison to other grains available.
The momentum for these new age grains will solely depend on the food marketers ability to effectively market the products derived from them and reach the end consumer’s home through innovative methods and channels and make them into regular, daily usage product.
Fortified and Biofortified foods will be the new Norm:
Micronutrient deficiencies or ‘hidden hunger’ and the negative consequences of a diet lacking in essential vitamins and minerals/trace elements continue to pose significant public health problems in Indian populations.
Food fortification is one of the simplest and most sustainable public health strategies to address the challenge of micronutrient deficiencies. Fortified foods have a better impact as it helps to maintain a steady body stores for vitamins and minerals, when consumed regularly.
Making fortified foods available to the Indian Consumers round the country is a primary objective of FSSAI – Food Safety and Standards Authority of India. The new standards now provide a minimum and maximum range for fortification of staples like Wheat flour (Atta), Maida, Rice, Salt, Vegetable oil and Milk, while the dosage of the micronutrients has been adjusted to provide 30 to 50 per cent of the daily requirements.
But Fortified foods are considered as not natural and as per many major Food Manufacturers such as Amul are not in favour of the artificial fortification and are in favour of natural fortification to address vitamin and mineral deficiency.
As per RS Sodhi, managing director, GCMMF, “The current fortification is like a medication, which chemically fortifies the milk. Amul is not for synthetic and artificial fortification especially.” Hence the future belongs to Biofortified foods.
Biofortification is a cost-efffective and sustainable sloutions that uses conventional plant breeding and agronimic practises to increase the density of micronutrients such as Vitamin A, Zinc and Iron in staple foods such as Wheat, Rice, Pearl Millet, Maize Beans and other food crops.
Packaged Food Products which are manufactured from these Biofortified Staple foods will be preferred by the immunity seeking consumers as Zinc, Iron and Vitamin A enhances the immunity of consumers.
The rise of value-added culinary ingredients for home cooking:
During this extended lockdown when all were to stay at home, one of the major essential is the daily food to be made with no Domestic help or cooks coming and also with prepared food cannot be ordered from the nearby restaurants and eateries.
The consequence of this being that the house-lady gets to do more with demanding children and all at home with no domestic help. In the near future the migrant workers who have left for their native will not be coming back immediately and most domestic help and cooks belong to the families of these migrant workers and hence there will be shortage of the regular cooking and domestic helps.
Hence, housewives will be using more of the products which will remove the drudgery of peeling, cutting, grating, grinding, and sautéing of vegetables and culinary ingredients.
The demand for pre cut vegetables and peeled garlic and ginger available at major retail supermarkets will be in great demand. The basic culinary pastes such as ginger garlic pastes, tamarind pastes, coconut milk and milk powders, tomato puree and pastes, kandha lasun mixes will grow at exponential rates due to high demand.
The new home cooking will also demand the intermediate gravy mixes such as tomato gravy mix for dal / lentils, vegetable, rajma and chickpeas / chole and paneer curries, white gravy mixes for Mughlai dishes and paneer dishes and the non-vegetarian gravy mixes for preparing the non-vegetarian dishes.
The less culinary skilled persons and bachelors without any cooking skills have been preferring the ready to cook spice mixes for both non- vegetarian and vegetarian dishes and these products will be the new cooking aid for many in the future as this saves on time and all can prepare good dishes.
The culinary skilled persons can easily prepare the dishes that they are not aware of for example a north Indian can prepare well and serve Chettinad chicken or Malabar chicken curry or appam and stew.
Working from home and more home stays will stir up demand for the ready to cook and ready to eat foods:
As experienced during the lockdown period, working from home has been found to be more fruitful and productive for many industries apart from the Software and allied industries. Hence in the future post lockdown most companies will look at working from home as the new working norm.
With the regulatory social distancing to be mandatory even in many corporates with offices will start having staggered working hours with many personnel working for short periods and meetings at office and balance working from home.
Schools and colleges with the need to maintain social distancing and as precautionary measures will encourage students lesser time in school / colleges and will have alternate coaching / teaching online. This will mean that children will be more at home post the lockdown in comparison to the pre lockdown periods. With going out for dinners / parties / clubs / weddings will be drastically reduced due to the regulatory social distancing / gatherings and new norms during the lockdown, the home stays for all the family members will be drastically higher.
With no roadside food joints during a large part of the post lockdown period, there will be pressure/demand at home for all types of snacking which will require the household stocking more of the following different ready to cook snacks, meals and instant mixes that can be made instantly with little efforts and fuss by any member of the family.
Future of the Indian dairy industry post lockdown:
As Indian consumers is more dependent on the milk and milk products for its nutrition the Covid-19 pandemic has thrown up the real possibility for the dairy industry to benefit as large sections of consumers will strongly shift from meat-based to dairy-based protein.
The lockdown has made people more aware of the need to adopt a healthy diet and this will increase the demand on the Dairy products with more solids and fat through.
• Homogenised standardised milk will be in more demand:
In India the most prevalent milk is the toned milk but, in the future, there will be more demand for milk with higher fat and milk solids and hence homogenised standardised milk will grow faster and will ultimately overgrow the toned milk category.
• Milk with less bacterial count / bactofugation: Post lockdown, consumers will become more aware and petrified of the virus and bacteria around and in the food that they consume.
Milk in India is known to contain more bacterial count even after pasteurisation but dairy companies which has bactofugation process which removes the pathogenic bacteria will have the preference among the consumers.
• Ambient temperature UHT milk packing will be in more demand for the pantry: Consumers have been using the UHT tetra pack milk during the lockdown and the freshness factor that the UHT milk lacked was no longer inhibited usage for the storage value it had. Consumers were willing to pay more for the ambient temperature storage and UHT milk which had a growth rate of 25 per cent will now double the growth rates in the post Lockdown period.
• Pro-Biotic dairy products will be preferred will be preferred over the normal dairy products. Henceforth post the Lockdown consumers will pay a premium and prefer probiotic fermented products such as curd, lassi, yoghurt and new products which has more probiotics such as kefir and laban.
• Milk procurement will rise tremendously as the demand for dairy products will continuously rise and the excess milk will be converted to SMP to meet the growing demand for higher fat and solids milk and milk products.
Poultry meat and meat products will have to reorient for the post lockdown period: During the initial phase of Novel Corona Viral breakout the demand for poultry meat had dropped to dismal levels as a result the wholesale rates of poultry meat touched as low as Rupees 40 per kilogram when the average production cost of one kg poultry meat is above Rupees 77 per kilogram.
All poultry integrators, poultry processors and farmers have been losing money heavily and this is not a product which can be stored especially during the onset of the hot summer weather. The Poultry Industry failed to travel the last mile and have left the development half way and have made themselves dependent on the Live Bird wholesalers who ensure the poultry majors do not get good prices for the Live Birds which is sold as a commodity.
Poultry Industry should have gone the last leg in setting up poultry processing facilities and engaged in reaching processed poultry to the consumers and not Live Birds. Even the Fisheries Industry has not developed the last leg and the National Fisheries Development Board (NFDB) has not ensured that there is enough capacity for the processing of fisheries.
Wet live poultry bird / fish / lamb slaughter houses will move out of cities : With the hygiene becoming a high priority concern during the lockdown, the wet markets such as the Live bird / Lamb slaughter shops are bound to be moved out of cities or closed down during the post lockdown period.
This will then require Poultry / Meat Processing plants to be located outside the cities and the processed meat in chilled / frozen formats will be sold in Retail outlets. Many of the Countries have this in place and Poultry / Meat / Fisheries majors will have to initiate Retailing of the processed meat and other value-added products.
Though there has been a small initiative by major players such as Suguna, Godrej Tyson, Baramati Agro with Chicken Vicken / Delicious Stores, Venky's store cum QSR outlet, ROC, Falcon Chilika etc yet many unorganised Wet laughter houses continue to prevail. Similarly, the fish and mutton wet stores will be moved out of the cities with Hygienic Retail stores replacing them.
The market for chilled chicken meat and processed chicken products are bound to grow as poultry meat is the cheapest form of non-vegetarian protein available and with the post lockdown the demand for these products are bound to increase.
Speciality value added / biofortified eggs will become the new norms : Till date most of the eggs are cleaned and packed eggs for which a premium was being paid by the consumers, but with the crisis and in the post lockdown period where health and Immunity has a premium the value added eggs biofortified with special nutrients such as Omega 3 fatty acids, Selenium, Vitamins and minerals that not only provide nutritional value but specific functional benefits to the consumers for a healthy lifestyle for people of all age groups and health conditions.
Egg Powder has been used in food manufacturing but post Covid the usage of egg powder will find a place in the food service and domestic consumer homes due to its convenience.
Post COVID19, food will become rightly spiced: Indian Consumers are well aware of the medicinal and health benefits of all the Spices that they consume and hence post Covid Lockdown there will be more utilisation of all Major Spices ( Chillies, Turmeric, Coriander ), many of the Minor Spices ( Black Pepper, Cinnamon, Cardamom, Cloves, Nutmeg etc ) and Ginger and Garlic. There will be a higher surge in the demand for Whole spices than Spice Powders (Blends and Straights) as Dietitians / Doctors have been prescribing the usage of these spices for improving immunity.
The conversion of the unorganised loose spice / masala powders to the organised packaged spice / masala powders will be at a faster pace. Within a few years of the post lockdown period the organised packaged spice powders is bound to double in size. Hence spice brands that market themselves with easy reach and availability will gain momentum and among them the true national brands will emerge.
New quality parameters will emerge in the packaged spice / masala powder market as consumers become more conscious of the quality parameters of freshness with the flavour content. Brands that will manage their supply chain better and make the latest manufactured products to its consumers will score over others.
Premium true national packaged spice / masala brands will emerge post lockdown as consumers continue to demand better products with range of diverse recipes than only regional brands serving regional recipes.
Spice Oleoresins will start gaining acceptance post lockdown among the domestic home consumers as the Spice Oleoresins offer a concentrated flavour. But this will depend on the manufacturers desire and efforts to market and reach to the favourable domestic consumers.
Future of the food service / HoReCa / bakery: In the post lockdown future, one of the biggest losers will be the food service / business such as restaurants, food stands, vendors and corporate entertainment is likely to recede. Even team celebrations, family outings etc. are likely to remain low key for the next few years till the pall of gloom and fear lifts. Another point for eating-out will be that the 55 plus aged customers will drop very substantially which are, in fact, the better, richer customers. The International QSRs such as Dominos, McDonald’s, Pizza Hut, KFC, Burger King etc., and the Indian QSRs will get impacted for at least two years as lesser number of parents will want their younger kids and teenagers to hang out / eat out.
Catering segment of the Food Service will be the most affected business during the post lockdown period as most of the corporates will have work from home policy and corporate offices will have a staggered Office hours / working policy. Even employees will mostly try to get their own packed food from home rather than having food from office canteens or outside due to the hygiene factor. Hence institutional caterers along with the wedding caterers and party caterers will have to look for alternatives as their business will drastically reduce to a minimal and it will take a longer time for their catering business to recover.
New format of restaurants with only takeaways / deliveries and cloud kitchen formats will emerge. Street food will close for few years as the middle-class consumers would want to avoid anything that looks suspect or seems unhygienic. Opportunity therefore, for many home restaurants / takeaway or only delivery restaurants / pop-up kitchens / bakeries who will make small quantities fresh in their kitchens and supply anything from dhokla to sandwiches / burgers / biryani and curries by kilo to homes and offices not very far away, in clean, safe, hygienic packaging. Cloud Kitchens which do not have any major chefs but depend and use only the ready to cook or instant mixes by not so culinary skilled persons will emerge.
Quality food delivery aggregators and premium delivery food chains will survive in the post lockdown era. During the lockdown there has been a case in Delhi of a pizza delivery boy spreading the Coronavirus to sixty customers who had contacted him during the delivery. Hence Indian consumers are wary of the delivery staff of the food delivery aggregators and hence only food delivery aggregators who have trained their delivery staff of the norms to be followed and exhibit the same will be the preferred aggregators and all restaurants and food joints will depend on these quality food delivery aggregators. Even the international QSRs who are dependent on the Delivery model such as Domino’s Pizza needs to create a Premium Delivery system with all the WHO SOPs to be followed for survival.
New Dine outs will have new Technological interventions to aid the restaurant and the customers in maintaining the post Covid norms. The restaurant aggregator application will enable customers to make their selection, and reserve a table, which would reduce waiting time and thereby minimise human contact.
Customers can further choose to pre-book their food through the app or do so via smartphone apps once they reach the restaurant and are seated. The seating arrangement may also be pre-informed to the customer through the app interface itself, which would detail the table number where a diner may sit. Diners will then simply pay though a smartphone apps, thereby reducing the physical contact points to a bare minimum.
Shortening the supply chain network:
During the lockdown the supply chain was disturbed even for the packaged food companies and especially for the essential goods suppliers such as milk and dairy products. Many of the FMCG and packaged food manufacturers had multi-level / layer of distribution wherein stocks were locked up at different levels and was unable to reach out to the retail and the end consumers.
Regional manufacturing bases for large packaged food manufacturers with large volume sales will need to look forth operating regional manufacturing bases near their large customer bases such as large metros and cities. This will shorten the supply chain and ensure rapid delivery to major consumption centres.
Removing unwanted layers of distribution vhannels such as Super Stockist, Wholesale Distributors and few of the App based E-Distribution platforms in FMCG and Packaged Food and Beverage Products ( such as Ebutor and NumberMall ) will become redundant.
Home delivery is one of the largest opportunities thrown open by the crisis which will continue well during the post lockdown period.
Consumers will prefer their favourite brand of packaged food and beverage products to be delivered at their doorstep in a hygienic and safe manner and this will stay for a longer period.
Food delivery aggregators will fully also join the grocery / packaged food and beverage delivery business to utilise their capacities. This home delivery will become a must for survival for any of the large retailer, multinational / regional food and beverage goods marketer or the neighbourhood mom-and-pop kirana shop.
Organisations whose product supply chain was affected due to the pandemic lockdown should look at creating alternate supply chains to reach the consumers. The organisation who have already developed an e-commerce and a distribution and supply application for the retailers and consumers would be able to reap the benefits during such periods of pandemic lockdowns.
Organisations who produce essential products such as milk, meat and other daily food products and organised grocery retailers need to justify their presence in the community by going out of their way to serve the community and these brands will be able to build loyalty even in post pandemic normal times.
The post lockdown opens a gigantic opportunity for creating the world’s biggest direct-to-home channel for everything from staples, packaged food and beverages, clothes, and electronic gadgets.
The investment of Facebook into Jio has an opportunity to change the retail face of India with Facebook’s social messaging app WhatsApp having 400 million users in India, and Reliance’s retail network of around 1,000 stores with the six million-odd kirana / mom and pop stores across the country, riding as Jio’s telecom subscribers.
Finally, the packaged food and beverage brands which are true to themselves will be the most successful in the post lockdown period.
There will be tendency for brand marketers to make tall claims of health and immunity, hygiene and faster delivery which needs to be controlled by the regulatory authorities. Already brands of milk and curd have started to claim in their advertisements as an immunity development product. Packaging and labelling norms will undergo new changes for giving the consumer correct reading of the products as hence forth consumers will tend to go through the packing details apart from the MRP and date of manufacture.
(The author is chief brand mentor for NEXT Food and Beverage Brands. He can be reached at prmathews@nextfoodbrands.com)
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